As the numbers of Covid-19 cases have soared globally forcing new sanctions in Europe and many parts of the United States as looming shutdowns are once again put in place, Americans hunker down behind walls and fences as a result of fear over possible violence erupting in the aftermath of the 2020 election - which many are calling the most contentious and polarizing in our nation's history. Even here in my town, new sanctions will force businesses to return to another way of doing business in order to survive as cases continue to soar, despite the President claiming we are "rounding the curve."
I was recently reminded of one of the greatest moments in cinema. In the sweeping historical drama “Lawrence of Arabia," the young British diplomat-adventurer T.E. Lawrence has convinced a group of Arab tribes to mount a surprise attack against the Ottoman Empire, from whom they are seeking independence. Lawrence leads a band of these Bedouin warriors across the desert, approaching the Ottoman port of Aqaba from the rear. They cross the desert in blistering heat, braving swirling sandstorms.
At one point, they discover that one of the Arab soldiers has fallen off his camel. Lawrence instantly decides that he must turn around and find the lost man. A character tells Lawrence his time had come...it is written. Lawrence snaps back that "Nothing is written."
The world that is being ushered in as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic is new and scary. The health crisis has accelerated a number of forces that were already gathering steam. Most fundamentally, it is now blindingly clear that human development, as it is happening now, is creating ever-greater risks. The backlash from nature is all around us, from wildfires to hurricanes to pandemics, of which Covid-19 may simply be the first in a series. The pandemic has intensified other trends, too. For demographic and other reasons, countries will likely see more sluggish economic growth. Inequality will get worse, as the big get bigger in every sphere. Machine learning is moving so fast that, for the first time in history, human beings might lose control over their own creations. Nations are becoming more parochial, their domestic politics more isolationist. The United States and China are headed toward a bitter and prolonged confrontation.
It is a dangerous moment. But it is also in times like these that we can shape and alter such trends. To complete the story of our future, we must add in human agency. People can choose which direction they want to push themselves, their societies and their world. In fact, we have more leeway now. In most eras, history proceeds along a set path and change is difficult. But the novel Coronavirus has upended society. People are disoriented. Things are already changing and, in that atmosphere, further change becomes easier than ever.
Think about the changes we have accepted in our own lives in response to the pandemic. We have agreed to isolate ourselves for long stretches. We have worked, attended meetings and had deeply personal conversations by talking to our laptops. We have taken online courses and have seen doctors and therapists using telemedicine. In a month, companies changed policies that would normally have taken them years to revise. Overnight, cities turned avenues into pedestrian walkways and sidewalks into cafes. Attitudes toward people previously ignored or overlooked are shifting, as can been seen in the newly adopted phrase “essential workers." And governments have opened up their coffers in ways that were once unimaginable and could lead to much greater willingness to invest in the future.
These changes could be momentary blips - or the start of something new. We could continue with business as usual and risk cascading crises from climate change and new pandemics. Or we could get serious about a more sustainable strategy for growth. We could turn inward and embrace nationalism and self-interest, or we could view these challenges - which cross all borders - as a spur to global cooperation and action. We have many futures in front of us.
We have confronted just such a crossroads before, especially in the aftermaths of World War I, World War II, Smallpox and the Influenza Epidemic.
The current pandemic presents similar choices. We could settle into a world of slow growth, increasing natural dangers and rising inequality - and continue with business as usual. Or we could choose to act forcefully, using the vast capacity of government to make massive new investments to equip people with the skills and security they need in an age of bewildering change. We could build a 21st-century infrastructure, putting to work many of those most threatened by new technologies. We could curb carbon emissions simply by placing a price on them that reflects their true cost. And we could recognize that, along with dynamism and growth, we need resilience and security.
There are those who want this crisis to be the start of a revolution. But, we do not need an overthrow of the existing order in the hope that something better would take its place. We have made real gains, economically and politically. The world is a better place than it was 50 years ago, by almost any measure. We understand the deficiencies and the ways to address them. The problem has not been to arrive at solutions; it has been to find the political will to implement them. We need reforms in many areas, and, were they actually enacted, these reforms would add up to a revolution of sorts. With even some of these ideas implemented, the world could look very different 20 years from now.
Countries can change.
The pandemic has made so many - nations and individuals - turn inward and become selfish. But an even larger crisis had the opposite effect on the greatest statesmen of the age. Twenty years after D-Day, CBS News correspondent Walter Cronkite visited the beaches of Normandy with former President Eisenhower, who had seen the worst of humanity. As they sat overlooking the rows of graves in Normandy, Eisenhower said, “These people gave us a chance, and they bought time for us, so that we can do better than we have before."
So, too, in our times, this ugly pandemic has created the possibility for optimism, change and reform. It has opened a path to a new world. It is ours to take that opportunity or to squander it. Nothing is written.
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